WEDNESDAY, OCTOBER 12

 

7:30 am – 6:30 pm

REGISTRATION

LOCATION: Hotel Lobby

SPONSORED BY:
Prince Rupert

 


7:30 – 8:30 AM

WELCOME COFFEE & TEA

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom Foyer

 


8:30 – 9:00 am

WELCOMING REMARKS

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

Chris Brooks
Executive Editor,
The Journal of Commerce and JOC Events,
IHS Maritime & Trade

Greg Knowler
Asia Editor,
IHS Maritime & Trade

 


9:00 – 9:45 AM

OPENING KEYNOTE ADDRESS

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

— INTRODUCED BY —
Peter Tirschwell
SENIOR DIRECTOR CONTENT,
IHS MARITIME & TRADE

— FEATURED SPEAKER —
Wan Min
President,
China COSCO Shipping

 


9:45 – 10:30 AM

CONSUMPTION TRENDS —
AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF ASIA’S CHANGING TRADE

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

Asia’s share of world consumption will rise from 27 percent today to 39 percent by 2035, according to analysis by IHS. With an increasing amount of goods manufactured in Asia also consumed in Asia, one important effect of rising consumption in the region will be to support continued rapid growth in intra-Asia trade. As consumer spending expand, so too will manufacturing activity. Southeast Asia is set to continue to enjoy growth in the lower-end manufacturing segment, much of it at China’s expense. For its part, China is working to shift its manufacturing sector to more complex, higher-value products such as power equipment, precision tools and robotics. In India, a reform-minded government is working to improve the country’s trade infrastructure and to grow its manufacturing sector. IHS expects India to increase its share of manufacturing as a percentage of GDP from just 15 percent today, well below East Asia’s levels of more than 30 percent. Elsewhere, the slump in global commodity prices could result in Indonesia finally taking a more energetic and effective approach to its manufacturing sector and release more of its unquestionable potential as a regional economic powerhouse. This session will look at the economic mega-trends shaping Asia and the consequences of those trends for the shape of the cargo transportation and supply chain sector in the region.

— SESSION CHAIR —
Turloch Mooney
Senior Editor,
Global Ports,
IHS MARITIME & TRADE

— PANELISTS —
Rajiv Biswas
Senior Director &
Senior Economist for the Asia-Pacific,
IHS MARITIME & TRADE

 


10:30 – 11:00 AM

NETWORKING COFFEE BREAK

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom Foyer

 


11:00 AM – 12:00 PM

ASIA SHIPPING OUTLOOK —
WHEN WILL CALM RETURN TO THE MARKET?

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

It’s becoming increasingly clear that without a drastic rise in demand and decrease in capacity, container lines can expect to limp through the next couple of years with little chance of profitability. The fundamentals are all wrong. Demand for global container shipping this year is expected to increase barely 1 percent, with capacity perhaps growing 6 percent, similar to last year. Not only is capacity outstripping demand by some measure, but the vessels entering the market are ever larger as carriers search for lower unit costs, even as they come under siege from deeply unprofitable freight rates. Rates on the trans-Pacific hit a record low of $725 per 40-foot-equivalent unit in late April, and through the first quarter, Asia-Europe spot rates averaged just over $400 per 20-foot-equivalent unit. This clearly can’t continue, but what is in the carrier toolbox to redress the supply-demand imbalance? Is there any other way to raise rates besides cutting capacity, and what will be the impact on shippers as carriers continue to put greater priority on cost cutting than on the need to improve profitability?

— SESSION CHAIR —
Greg Knowler
Asia Editor,
IHS Maritime & Trade

— PANELISTS —
Michael Beer
Vice President of Asia-Pacific
Transportation/Logistics Research,
Citi Research

Mario Moreno
Senior Economist,
IHS Maritime & Trade

 


12:00 – 1:00 PM

NETWORKING LUNCH

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom Foyer

 


1:00 – 1:45 AM

ASIA’S CHANGING TRADE PATTERNS

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

The rebalancing of Asia’s trade has begun. Although container volumes from China to the U.S. and Europe was still growing through the middle of the year, an obvious shift in merchandise flows was underway. The shifts result from permanent factors, such as rising labor costs in China that is pushing manufacturing to countries such as Vietnam, and fluctuating factors such as foreign currency movements.

The depreciation of the Brazilian real, for example, sent the country’s imports from China, its largest trading partner, tumbling 60 percent in the last quarter of 2015. But Brazil’s containerized exports to China and the rest of Asia increased. Another factor affecting trade flows in Asia is e-commerce.

Alibaba estimates that one-third of the $3 trillion global e-commerce market is cross-border trade, and a substantial portion of the products ordered online are carried by ocean freight, much of it transported to Asian destinations. China’s top markets for inbound goods ordered online are the U.S. (84 percent), Japan (52 percent) and the U.K. (43 percent). So what can we expect from developing Asia’s regional trade and its trade with other developing countries? How will shifting manufacturing and e-commerce shape the regional trade patterns of the future? Robbert van Trooijen, CEO of North Asia for Maersk Line, will offer the carrier’s perspective on what lies ahead.

— INTRODUCED BY —
Greg Knowler
Asia Editor,
IHS Maritime & Trade

— PANELIST —
Robbert van Trooijen
CEO Asia Pacific,
Maersk Line

 


1:45 – 3:00 PM

CONSOLIDATION AND THE ALLIANCE SHUFFLE —
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR SHIPPERS?

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

A sustained period of record low freight rates across the major trades is having a profound effect on the container shipping industry. With losses sometimes in the billions — MOL lost $1.5 billion in its financial year that ended March 31 — and even Maersk Line barely managing to break even in this year’s first quarter, carriers have entered a period of consolidation. CMA CGM’s acquisition of NOL (and its APL container carrier) is expected to be finalized by the time TPM Asia opens. China Cosco Shipping is busy bringing together Cosco Container Lines and China Shipping Container Lines, and Hapag-Lloyd is in talks with United Arab Shipping Co. A linkup of South Korea’s two debt-ridden carriers, Hanjin Shipping and Hyundai Maritime Marine, can’t be counted out, either. These mergers have forced a redrawing of shipping alliances, with only the 2M of Maersk Line and Mediterranean Shipping Co. unscathed. Beginning next April, the Ocean Alliance and the curiously named THE Alliance will go head-to-head with 2M on the world’s major trade lanes. But the new alliances were made for the benefit of carriers and not their customers, who will have their alliance choices narrowed from four to three. What will this mean for shippers preparing for their annual contract negotiations on the Asia-Europe trade in the fourth quarter and on the trans-Pacific in early 2017? Does having three alliances instead of four make it easier for shippers and forwarders or does it increase risk? Do shippers and forwarders even care how many alliances or carriers there are as long as their services are reliable?

— SESSION CHAIR —
Peter Tirschwell
SENIOR DIRECTOR CONTENT,
IHS MARITIME & TRADE

— PANELIST —
Marco van der Schans
Head of Transport Management,
MGB METRO Group Buying HK

Michael Cashman
Commercial Director,
Contship Italia

 


3:00 – 3:30 PM

NETWORKING COFFEE BREAK

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom Foyer

 


3:30 – 4:30 PM

PORTS IN THE CROSSHAIRS —
THE REGULATORY AND COMPETITIVE IMPACTS

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

Structural changes in the shipping industry together with global and regional economic and political trends continue to impact container port and terminal development in the region. Ports are acutely aware of the competitive need to upgrade to handle bigger vessels and undertake expensive investments in infrastructure and equipment. Yet in a more competitive environment for both transshipment and gateway cargo, the specter of declining throughput and, ultimately, overcapacity looms large for ports in some part of the region, particularly China. At the same time, there are questions over whether liner industry and service consolidation could undermine business at smaller ports and leave shippers with fewer service options. Elsewhere in Asia, the opposite is true, and inadequate port infrastructure and poor hinterland links are proving to be dead weight to the quest and potential for growth in places such as in South Asia and Southeast Asia. This session will look at the gaps in Asia’s port infrastructure and hinterland links in the context of future trade growth, and look to answer the question: Is Asia’s port landscape agile enough to support changing trade patterns?

— SESSION CHAIR —
Turloch Mooney
Senior Editor,
Global Ports,
IHS MARITIME & TRADE

— PANELISTS —
Tissa Wickramisinghe
General Manager,
Marketing & Commercial,
Colombo International
Container Terminals Ltd.

Jonathan Beard
Head of Transportation
and Logistics Consulting, Asia,
Arcadis

Benjamin Lai
Managing Director,
DaChan Bay Terminals,
Modern Terminals Ltd.

Laurent Fremy
Investment Officer for
Energy & Transport ASEAN,
International Finance Corporation

 


4:30 – 5:30 PM

AUTOMATION —
TAKING TIME AND COST OUT OF FREIGHT BOOKING

LOCATION: Espana Ballroom I

Container freight rates have been so low for so long that carriers and their customers are placing greater focus on the spot market rather than entering into annual or semiannual contracts. Maersk Line, the world’s largest ocean carrier, plans to raise its spot-to-contract ratio on Asia-Europe to 50-50, for example. Spot freight rates on the Asia-Europe trade now are changing daily, however, and that’s placing enormous pressure on forwarders trying to stay on top of the rapidly shifting prices and offer updated quotes. Although automated freight rate and booking solutions have existed for the past few years, the increasing volatility of spot rates is giving new impetus to technology companies offering such rate-managing services. So why isn’t the market rushing to sign up for these offerings? What will it take to win the trust of forwarders? Can these solutions providers actually take costs out of the supply chain? This session will take a deep dive into these questions and look at the prospects for automated freight booking.

— SESSION CHAIR —
Peter Tirschwell
SENIOR DIRECTOR CONTENT,
IHS MARITIME & TRADE

— PANELISTS —
Matt Tillman
CEO, Haven Inc.

Harry Sangree
Executive Vice President,
CargoSphere

Zvi Schreiber
CEO,
Freightos

 


5:30 – 7:30 PM

NETWORKING RECEPTION

LOCATION: The Galleon

SPONSORED BY:
Prince Rupert